International tourist arrivals are forecasted to reach 1.8bn by 2030 according to the newly released UNWTO long-term forecast, Tourism Towards 2030 report, which is good news for property investors as demand for holiday rental will increase.
Highlights from the report are:
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace
International tourism will continue to grow in the period 2010-2030, but at a more moderate pace than the past decades, with the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide increasing by an average 3.3% a year.
The main reasons for this more sustainable growth are mainly: The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers; Lower GDP growth, as economies mature; A lower elasticity of travel to GDP, and a shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones.
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average
As a result of this growth, an average 43 million additional international tourists will join the tourism marketplace every year.
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030
At the projected pace of growth, arrivals will pass the 1 billion mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, arrivals are expected to reach 1.8 billion, meaning that in two decades’ time, 5 million people will be crossing international borders for leisure, business or other purposes such as visiting friends and family every day.
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015
International arrivals in emerging economy destinations are expected to continue growing at double the pace (+4.4% year) of advanced ones (+2.2% a year).
In absolute terms, the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa will gain an average 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million in the traditional destinations of the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia and the Pacific.
By 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, and by 2030 their share is expected to reach 58%.
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares
There will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific (to 30% in 2030, up from 22% in 2010), the Middle East (to 8% from 6%) and Africa (to 7% from 5%), and further declines in the shares of Europe (to 41% from 51%) and the Americas (to 14% from 16%), mostly due to the slower growth of North America.
North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030
By 2030, North East Asia will be the most visited subregion in the world, representing 16% of total arrivals and taking over from Southern and Mediterranean Europe, with a 15% share in 2030. Western Europe is in third place, with a 12% share in 2030.
Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most
A large proportion of the arrivals of the next two decades will originate from the countries of Asia and the Pacific, growing at a rate of 5.0% a year and generating an average 17 million additional international arrivals every year.
Europe follows with an average 16 million extra arrivals a year, resulting from a much more moderate growth rate (+2.5% a year), but on top of a much larger base.
Good news for rental property investors
With the projected increase in tourism arrivals and revenues by 2030 and the strengthening economy, forecasts for prime real estate markets are positive.
The increase in demand for properties for rent from the growing tourism base is an attractive opportunity to invest in high-quality real estate in sought-after destinations. Acquiring a luxury vacation home might seem like a dream, but when considering its income earning potential, buying a luxury property abroad may not be such a bad idea after all.
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